* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP101996 09/30/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 32 28 25 20 18 17 16 17 21 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 32 28 25 20 18 17 16 17 21 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 33 30 27 26 25 24 22 21 21 V (KT) G02R 55 34 25 25 24 22 22 25 25 26 24 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 17 13 9 8 6 11 10 16 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 4 2 2 1 0 7 6 1 0 6 8 SHEAR DIR 266 267 259 253 256 233 274 236 265 246 290 279 297 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 143 143 141 144 144 152 151 150 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 9 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 55 55 51 49 47 49 52 55 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 15 15 13 12 10 10 8 8 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 89 77 64 52 30 12 19 7 10 17 12 6 14 200 MB DIV 16 29 36 27 31 1 24 25 45 74 87 66 55 LAND (KM) 1048 1061 1073 1087 1071 1070 1087 1126 1019 880 707 515 346 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.6 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.8 16.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.4 116.7 116.9 116.8 116.9 116.9 117.1 115.6 112.7 110.5 108.7 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 0 2 2 15 10 9 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -20. -22. -23. -24. -23. -19.