* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISIDORE AL091996 09/30/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 54 53 56 56 50 36 27 25 22 20 V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 54 53 56 56 50 36 27 25 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 54 52 50 50 47 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 48 47 42 39 44 43 43 44 38 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 37 39 40 35 37 18 26 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 2 0 -3 0 0 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 66 70 60 49 352 8 25 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.0 26.3 23.8 21.5 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 123 128 128 122 102 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 112 117 118 113 94 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -56.3 -57.5 -57.9 -58.2 -58.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 8 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 51 52 51 48 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 22 20 19 20 16 16 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 39 50 29 31 48 8 -27 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 82 91 60 94 42 90 51 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2409 2518 2495 2336 2167 1724 1266 1246 1634 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 25.0 26.2 27.7 29.5 34.0 39.5 43.1 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.2 41.3 41.7 41.7 41.3 41.3 41.0 38.1 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 17 20 26 27 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 22/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -10. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -4. -4. -10. -24. -33. -35. -38. -40.