* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP101996 10/03/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 33 34 36 36 33 29 29 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 33 34 36 36 33 29 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 23 V (KT) G04R 61 35 35 35 37 36 36 37 38 35 31 34 32 SHEAR (KT) 12 2 9 11 10 12 10 13 14 15 14 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 6 5 2 4 6 8 4 5 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 18 228 236 226 234 241 275 287 282 285 294 275 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 134 135 136 137 138 138 137 134 133 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 56 55 55 53 54 53 49 50 50 51 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 18 18 18 18 19 20 20 19 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -5 -8 2 6 -3 1 0 14 8 6 8 9 200 MB DIV 12 61 72 85 75 44 59 57 65 39 19 -3 18 LAND (KM) 1283 1384 1425 1395 1371 1286 1203 1123 1051 1036 1058 1146 1229 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.1 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.3 16.8 16.9 16.6 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.3 119.3 119.0 118.9 118.3 117.6 117.3 117.2 117.5 118.0 119.0 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 2 3 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):228/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 0. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 8. 4. 4. 1.