* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP101996 10/04/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 23 24 24 23 21 21 22 23 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 23 24 24 23 21 21 22 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 42 26 25 23 25 26 28 30 28 25 24 22 20 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 10 15 16 16 16 22 15 18 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -4 -1 0 0 -1 5 5 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 348 281 262 272 272 273 277 282 268 281 260 251 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 133 135 138 141 144 145 146 146 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -53.9 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 54 57 56 58 59 59 58 61 63 67 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -7 13 3 3 7 1 11 26 45 29 60 73 83 200 MB DIV 53 78 51 52 72 43 64 90 76 82 58 47 48 LAND (KM) 1329 1359 1418 1424 1427 1372 1279 1154 1051 954 864 849 882 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.3 14.7 14.5 14.2 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.6 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 120.5 120.6 120.4 120.0 118.8 117.7 116.6 115.5 114.8 114.2 114.6 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 4 4 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3.