* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HERNAN EP111996 10/04/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 22 21 21 25 28 32 36 36 37 42 49 V (KT) LAND 30 25 22 21 21 25 28 32 36 36 37 42 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 14 17 15 17 17 15 14 9 10 11 11 11 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 13 14 13 12 9 8 7 6 5 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 8 5 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 25 24 24 10 353 323 309 307 300 306 315 39 N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 146 145 145 141 143 138 140 141 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 12 14 11 13 11 11 10 9 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 66 65 65 64 65 60 57 52 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 3 -3 -3 -11 1 36 36 61 70 76 73 N/A 200 MB DIV 48 54 36 16 25 20 32 17 12 1 17 -18 N/A LAND (KM) 80 106 162 207 209 280 366 417 450 510 612 691 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.2 20.0 19.6 19.8 19.1 18.7 18.6 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.7 107.2 107.5 107.6 108.0 108.7 109.2 110.7 112.0 113.4 114.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 2 1 5 2 8 6 7 7 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):341/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -15. -14. -14. -11. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -9. -9. -5. -2. 2. 6. 6. 7. 12. 19.