* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HERNAN EP111996 10/04/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 22 20 21 24 27 30 33 33 33 36 39 V (KT) LAND 30 25 22 20 21 24 27 30 33 33 33 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 13 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 83 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):341/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -15. -14. -14. -11. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -9. -6. -3. 0. 3. 3. 3. 6. 9.