* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP101996 10/07/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 36 35 30 25 19 16 15 17 21 22 V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 36 35 30 25 19 16 15 17 21 22 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 36 33 31 29 27 26 26 DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 35 30 26 23 22 19 17 16 16 13 9 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 24 25 27 32 26 28 20 16 9 1 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -6 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 300 303 293 291 289 271 261 250 254 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 135 136 139 143 144 143 142 141 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 45 50 50 50 52 56 58 56 57 52 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 14 12 12 9 9 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -12 0 11 20 47 63 66 65 49 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 42 -14 -17 13 16 6 35 36 2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1104 1116 1122 1128 1144 1182 1285 1316 1259 1289 1367 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.7 14.8 13.5 13.1 14.0 14.2 14.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.5 118.3 118.0 117.8 117.3 117.1 117.0 117.4 118.1 119.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 4 5 6 6 3 3 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -5. -10. -16. -19. -20. -18. -14. -13.