* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/07/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 49 51 42 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 49 36 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 39 39 31 28 29 30 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 38 34 32 44 41 35 30 33 26 34 33 38 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 36 39 51 41 56 79 93 98 119 125 104 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 0 8 4 -4 -4 -4 -9 -20 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 72 70 73 61 59 50 48 50 59 62 69 73 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 27.9 27.3 20.7 14.2 12.6 11.1 8.6 6.2 12.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 138 131 87 73 71 72 68 69 72 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 126 123 83 71 69 71 67 68 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.0 -48.6 -49.1 -49.8 -50.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 69 63 59 57 58 59 59 53 53 55 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 24 29 30 31 28 30 28 24 22 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 150 169 190 182 184 171 197 207 190 123 119 N/A 200 MB DIV 96 62 79 87 106 187 130 110 57 46 6 8 N/A LAND (KM) 379 327 328 231 129 -71 -58 -101 -102 67 259 785 N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.2 26.5 27.9 28.6 33.3 37.3 41.6 46.0 49.6 51.3 51.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.7 88.7 87.7 86.6 84.8 80.3 76.5 73.5 67.2 60.2 51.6 42.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 13 17 20 29 28 27 34 24 30 28 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 88/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -7. -20. -32. -43. -53. -60. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 2. 4. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 14. 16. 8. -5. -22. -44. -64. -83.-100.