* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 50 44 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 46 39 34 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 47 39 34 34 26 21 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 40 37 37 35 38 32 33 28 31 30 37 41 46 SHEAR (KT) 46 44 56 67 84 84 93 103 105 85 48 28 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 -4 1 5 -2 -4 0 -3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 60 54 53 52 55 65 69 86 94 102 88 35 15 SST (C) 18.6 16.5 14.5 12.5 10.5 8.7 12.1 7.4 12.2 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.8 POT. INT. (KT) 79 76 76 74 71 70 71 70 73 72 71 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 74 75 73 69 69 69 69 71 69 68 63 62 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -50.0 -48.5 -49.7 -50.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 63 65 63 51 46 48 57 61 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 29 28 29 30 28 24 22 18 20 24 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 172 176 147 148 131 146 148 105 49 78 228 332 324 200 MB DIV 104 130 153 193 152 104 28 8 4 18 60 63 26 LAND (KM) 86 -121 -62 -103 39 80 56 28 690 1366 1127 837 717 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.6 33.3 36.6 39.3 43.3 47.0 49.3 50.3 50.9 51.6 53.0 53.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 82.7 80.2 77.1 74.0 68.7 62.2 53.1 43.7 34.2 26.7 22.6 20.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 27 38 39 30 31 28 32 34 25 22 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -25. -28. -30. -32. -33. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -26. -36. -46. -51. -53. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -9. -6. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 14. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -23. -38. -57. -77. -97.-109.-112.-111.-114.