* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 52 47 41 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 45 39 38 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 46 39 34 34 26 28 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 41 40 38 42 47 38 36 26 30 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 47 49 62 64 83 84 90 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 0 7 -4 1 5 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 59 59 53 54 66 69 78 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 17.7 11.7 12.0 7.3 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 83 84 85 79 72 71 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 81 81 80 75 70 69 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -50.2 -48.7 -49.6 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 64 63 63 62 62 51 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 30 29 31 31 32 31 26 22 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 169 140 130 136 127 119 119 103 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 148 182 190 131 93 34 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 91 -13 -84 7 100 113 13 24 591 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 31.9 34.6 37.1 39.0 43.3 46.8 49.4 50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.2 81.2 78.7 75.7 73.3 67.2 60.8 53.2 45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 38 36 34 31 28 31 26 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 401 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29. -30. -31. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -19. -26. -36. -46. -52. -57. -63. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -19. -33. -52. -74. -94.-110.-124.-138.-153.