* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/10/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 41 38 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 34 31 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 40 37 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 86 95 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 9.7 5.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -47.9 -47.6 -48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 150 161 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 63 14 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.3 48.6 48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.1 58.8 55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 28 CX,CY: 19/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 9. 11. 8. -3. -22. -38. -49. -57. -64. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. -29. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -24. -44. -70. -94.-114.-130.-147.-166.