* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/13/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 58 58 57 54 52 49 44 35 29 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 58 58 57 54 52 49 44 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 54 53 49 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 36 38 37 36 36 33 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 19 12 13 17 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 2 5 5 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 38 26 42 27 350 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.4 11.6 10.4 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 61 63 67 69 68 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 58 60 64 67 66 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 66 64 67 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 26 24 24 23 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 277 281 295 310 324 354 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 28 35 43 50 66 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 379 392 334 383 581 905 1293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 53.4 53.4 53.8 55.7 57.7 61.0 62.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 15.7 15.8 15.1 15.1 16.6 20.5 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 12 20 20 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 22/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -13. -16. -22. -27. -30. -31. -32. -32. -32. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 18. 13. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -20. -26.