* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/13/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 59 59 58 49 41 33 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 59 59 58 49 41 33 27 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 55 53 49 46 44 44 48 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 36 40 37 38 38 33 43 47 39 36 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 18 12 14 16 19 20 3 8 30 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 2 6 6 19 20 5 -1 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 34 20 39 20 353 346 1 63 129 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.4 13.6 13.3 12.2 11.5 10.1 8.6 10.0 10.8 11.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 63 64 68 69 68 68 65 64 67 71 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 60 61 65 67 66 66 64 62 65 69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -49.8 -50.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 66 64 67 70 63 48 47 48 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 25 25 24 23 26 20 12 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 278 290 297 304 311 326 189 132 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 26 34 42 51 68 10 -11 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 397 396 307 411 591 931 1412 1253 1029 490 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 53.5 53.2 53.9 56.1 57.9 61.6 62.0 59.9 59.6 56.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 16.0 15.8 14.7 15.2 16.5 20.6 29.7 27.5 23.3 15.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 15 21 19 21 15 10 17 28 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 22/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -26. -30. -31. -32. -32. -31. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 17. 12. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -6. -12. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -6. -14. -22. -28. -37. -43.