* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/13/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 57 58 58 56 53 51 45 37 31 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 57 58 58 56 53 51 45 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 54 52 49 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 35 38 39 36 35 36 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 19 11 12 14 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 3 2 4 3 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 38 25 38 25 351 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.6 11.8 10.6 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 63 62 66 69 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 59 59 63 66 66 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 65 62 65 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 25 23 22 22 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 284 281 299 317 335 372 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 25 33 41 50 67 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 386 405 343 325 488 861 1295 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 53.4 53.4 53.6 55.1 57.1 60.9 63.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 15.7 16.1 15.2 14.6 15.5 19.7 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 10 18 20 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 22/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -13. -16. -22. -27. -29. -31. -32. -32. -32. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 15. 18. 19. 17. 12. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 31. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -24.