* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/13/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 57 56 55 53 51 49 44 35 29 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 57 56 55 53 51 49 44 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 54 52 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 38 39 37 36 36 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 18 11 12 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 3 4 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 38 24 47 30 349 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.6 13.7 13.6 12.6 11.9 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 63 64 67 69 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 59 60 64 66 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.8 -50.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 67 64 66 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 25 24 22 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 285 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 374 369 310 325 473 697 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 53.1 52.9 53.3 55.1 56.8 60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 15.6 15.6 14.6 14.6 15.5 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 11 18 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 22/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -16. -22. -27. -30. -31. -32. -32. -32. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 17. 12. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -20. -26.