* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOSEPHINE AL101996 10/13/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 57 58 57 55 52 50 44 36 29 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 57 58 57 55 52 50 44 36 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 54 52 49 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 38 39 37 37 36 35 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 19 12 14 17 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 3 4 3 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 35 22 40 25 350 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.5 13.6 13.4 12.5 11.8 11.1 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 62 63 67 69 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 58 60 64 66 65 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 67 64 68 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 26 24 24 23 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 272 283 288 293 298 308 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 31 35 39 43 51 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 390 328 367 549 731 1161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 53.3 53.2 53.7 55.4 57.2 60.2 62.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 15.6 15.7 15.0 15.1 16.5 17.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 11 18 16 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 22/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -16. -23. -27. -30. -31. -32. -32. -32. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 18. 13. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26.