* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LILI AL121996 10/16/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 62 74 83 89 89 90 90 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 62 74 83 89 89 90 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 46 54 64 71 74 77 75 46 V (KT) G09R 29 26 24 24 21 26 30 31 35 41 37 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 0 5 2 6 7 6 12 13 14 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -5 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 176 214 153 178 222 175 299 317 327 324 308 20 355 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 26.8 28.6 24.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 151 153 151 150 147 144 142 139 117 141 101 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 144 144 138 136 132 128 125 121 102 124 91 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 10 13 14 11 14 12 13 9 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 80 77 76 72 74 70 66 64 67 62 58 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 17 20 22 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 104 93 83 75 75 65 53 55 67 52 35 19 20 200 MB DIV 40 45 27 27 44 41 56 66 51 59 70 9 18 LAND (KM) 116 137 179 193 205 110 73 57 49 29 49 8 -91 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.6 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.6 19.2 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 83.8 84.7 85.5 85.7 86.6 86.8 87.0 87.1 87.2 87.1 87.3 88.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 44. 53. 59. 59. 60. 60.