* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LILI AL121996 10/21/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 67 63 58 50 46 42 40 40 40 40 39 V (KT) LAND 75 71 67 63 58 50 46 42 40 40 40 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 65 60 56 48 43 42 44 47 50 50 47 V (KT) G06R 57 59 60 62 61 62 56 51 50 49 54 59 53 SHEAR (KT) 30 32 21 25 32 15 16 9 9 8 17 17 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 4 1 -1 6 -3 4 5 1 6 4 8 SHEAR DIR 63 52 50 70 84 48 90 101 41 76 26 33 44 SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.6 24.5 24.5 22.7 20.6 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 104 102 98 98 96 100 102 105 95 89 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 91 89 87 82 81 80 85 89 95 87 84 72 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -55.8 -56.6 -56.9 -57.8 -57.9 -58.3 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 7 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 40 35 34 36 36 43 43 41 45 48 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 39 40 43 42 43 42 38 37 35 36 36 39 850 MB ENV VOR 78 87 99 102 88 97 99 119 116 84 102 191 219 200 MB DIV 134 113 99 98 74 31 22 -1 13 54 60 110 50 LAND (KM) 1318 1244 1199 1170 1175 1128 1084 1158 1228 1201 954 909 1230 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.9 33.5 34.1 34.3 34.6 35.0 34.6 34.8 35.9 38.9 43.4 49.0 LONG(DEG W) 61.7 60.8 60.2 59.3 58.7 59.2 59.2 58.5 56.2 52.5 48.2 42.5 36.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 3 3 1 6 13 21 25 37 32 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 57/ 21 CX,CY: 18/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -24. -30. -33. -35. -36. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -3. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -25. -29. -33. -35. -35. -35. -35. -36.