* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LILI AL121996 10/25/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 76 75 73 69 59 52 41 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 76 75 73 69 59 52 37 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 75 72 69 63 56 50 44 36 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 65 54 59 57 59 57 61 58 59 46 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 10 10 24 37 34 23 28 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 1 1 8 11 18 12 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 5 19 32 26 12 9 5 29 61 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.2 20.3 17.5 14.5 13.1 11.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 95 94 92 85 79 75 73 72 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 86 86 84 79 75 72 70 70 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.1 -57.0 -57.0 -57.1 -57.1 -56.7 -55.9 -55.9 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 45 45 46 41 42 41 46 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 42 42 42 40 40 42 46 44 43 34 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 118 108 98 100 97 134 180 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 61 43 41 69 51 17 -3 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1402 1392 1420 1423 1462 1528 1743 1011 423 -43 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.8 35.2 36.1 37.1 40.2 44.2 48.9 52.5 54.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 47.8 45.7 43.5 41.0 36.3 30.7 23.7 16.5 6.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 19 21 23 26 31 32 30 32 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 84/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 389 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -26. -33. -38. -42. -43. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 0. -1. -7. -31. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -16. -23. -34. -64. -68. -71.