* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 68 66 61 56 47 32 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 68 66 61 56 47 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 37 41 46 50 53 53 51 45 38 V (KT) G01R 40 32 37 39 37 39 38 39 40 41 41 41 34 SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 18 15 15 15 19 19 25 24 28 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 1 1 6 3 3 4 8 6 7 2 SHEAR DIR 59 70 96 106 90 85 71 71 53 75 66 64 60 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.3 24.5 23.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 138 136 132 127 125 125 121 114 106 96 97 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 -55.5 -55.8 -56.7 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 9 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 54 53 56 57 58 56 56 55 53 53 54 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 22 22 22 23 25 26 26 25 25 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR -5 4 7 15 14 9 21 17 13 10 23 31 28 200 MB DIV 25 25 15 30 47 45 65 49 28 34 24 6 18 LAND (KM) 1234 1302 1313 1357 1406 1467 1544 1582 1588 1572 1583 1586 1710 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.3 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.6 117.4 118.7 119.8 121.6 123.2 124.5 125.5 126.3 127.3 128.3 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 11 12 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 38. 36. 31. 26. 17. 2.