* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 56 55 50 46 42 35 28 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 56 55 50 46 42 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 36 39 41 42 42 41 40 38 36 V (KT) G02R 28 26 28 31 30 32 30 33 31 28 27 29 26 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 16 22 23 31 24 30 28 27 24 34 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 1 -5 4 9 1 2 7 5 1 SHEAR DIR 39 91 116 122 102 104 77 94 94 92 65 44 47 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.2 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 137 132 126 124 125 121 119 113 115 117 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -54.0 -54.5 -55.1 -55.4 -56.3 -56.2 -56.6 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 60 60 61 60 59 53 50 47 47 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 16 16 17 19 20 20 19 19 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -22 -17 -7 -10 7 5 4 28 54 60 53 200 MB DIV 7 12 16 35 41 7 57 26 27 0 14 8 21 LAND (KM) 1354 1397 1359 1340 1360 1499 1591 1643 1706 1726 1798 1903 2046 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 17.7 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.1 117.7 118.7 120.1 122.5 124.0 125.3 126.7 127.5 128.8 130.0 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 12 15 15 9 6 8 5 6 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 25. 20. 16. 12. 5. -2.