* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 42 46 51 54 53 50 47 43 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 42 46 51 54 53 50 47 43 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 38 39 40 41 41 41 40 37 V (KT) G03R 28 29 28 26 27 26 29 30 32 31 31 35 36 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 17 17 18 36 25 26 24 27 32 37 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 7 14 14 10 6 10 9 5 7 2 8 7 SHEAR DIR 100 103 103 100 90 101 102 125 109 85 53 44 22 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 136 133 129 125 127 127 127 124 121 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.8 -56.2 -57.2 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 60 62 64 60 58 56 60 66 69 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 17 17 16 16 17 18 18 17 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -22 -11 -11 -12 -6 5 7 6 11 23 31 43 200 MB DIV -19 -14 8 -14 -2 22 46 31 53 15 13 80 53 LAND (KM) 1224 1300 1411 1537 1594 1699 1827 1968 2012 2122 2191 2187 2065 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.4 13.6 14.3 14.6 14.7 15.4 15.9 17.2 18.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 117.2 119.0 120.6 121.8 124.1 126.0 127.8 129.2 131.1 133.0 134.0 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 14 12 10 11 7 9 10 11 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 21. 24. 23. 20. 17. 13. 6.