* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 42 48 59 66 70 67 62 53 42 27 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 42 48 59 66 70 67 62 53 42 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 42 47 50 50 48 43 37 31 V (KT) G04R 46 42 46 47 54 54 56 55 53 49 50 43 42 SHEAR (KT) 5 10 14 12 14 20 20 15 15 17 15 23 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 3 1 3 0 1 5 5 4 7 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 1 48 68 80 64 80 32 52 13 58 38 67 64 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.4 24.2 23.5 22.7 22.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 140 137 134 126 122 117 104 97 88 84 83 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -54.0 -54.2 -55.0 -54.9 -56.0 -56.2 -57.1 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 54 55 53 51 50 45 45 48 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 25 27 28 30 31 33 33 33 31 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 8 13 11 18 30 29 29 20 11 9 11 200 MB DIV 19 8 17 62 74 61 93 45 49 25 28 -20 3 LAND (KM) 1106 1177 1200 1241 1236 1279 1336 1385 1343 1361 1396 1424 1470 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.6 20.4 21.7 22.5 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.9 116.9 117.9 118.6 120.6 122.2 123.6 124.7 125.7 127.1 127.9 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 9 8 9 8 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 18. 29. 36. 40. 37. 32. 23. 12. -3.