* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 46 57 66 66 61 54 44 33 17 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 46 57 66 66 61 54 44 33 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 43 48 51 51 47 42 35 28 V (KT) G05R 48 42 46 46 50 50 55 53 51 45 47 42 42 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 11 13 16 13 14 17 16 13 15 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 3 1 4 9 10 1 4 1 7 6 SHEAR DIR 344 66 80 95 83 81 63 44 30 23 34 61 54 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.1 23.0 22.3 21.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 138 136 128 123 117 104 92 85 76 68 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.6 -53.3 -54.1 -54.3 -55.5 -55.6 -57.1 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 54 53 54 57 58 55 54 49 47 42 44 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 27 28 28 30 33 32 30 31 29 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 -3 3 5 13 34 29 16 17 4 11 7 200 MB DIV 15 35 38 103 89 102 113 77 27 29 43 35 9 LAND (KM) 1175 1220 1221 1241 1238 1288 1305 1340 1267 1224 1113 1076 971 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.8 18.0 19.9 21.7 23.8 25.4 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.8 116.5 117.4 118.2 120.1 121.5 123.0 124.0 125.1 125.2 125.5 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 8 10 10 11 8 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 14. 12. 9. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 27. 36. 36. 31. 24. 14. 3. -13.