* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 44 51 57 60 57 50 42 34 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 44 51 57 60 57 50 42 34 19 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 43 43 41 37 32 26 V (KT) G06R 36 32 38 35 33 39 42 43 43 41 43 42 36 SHEAR (KT) 6 11 16 18 16 20 17 18 12 21 18 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 8 4 5 5 7 2 3 -3 -3 4 5 SHEAR DIR 68 89 91 96 77 71 56 85 58 54 60 35 28 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.1 23.9 22.8 22.0 21.0 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 135 131 127 125 124 114 101 90 83 72 61 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 -55.0 -55.7 -56.8 -57.4 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 50 51 54 55 55 55 50 50 51 50 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 21 20 21 22 24 25 25 25 25 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -7 -3 -5 -8 -7 -4 -13 -20 -16 5 7 200 MB DIV -1 -12 15 31 64 49 44 26 26 54 66 -19 52 LAND (KM) 1295 1318 1360 1420 1469 1547 1623 1595 1591 1496 1355 1131 888 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.5 14.9 15.4 16.1 16.8 18.4 19.7 21.5 23.8 26.4 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.9 119.4 120.9 122.2 123.9 125.4 126.8 127.9 128.1 127.8 127.3 126.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 14 11 9 9 11 8 10 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 21. 27. 30. 27. 20. 12. 4. -11.