* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 49 62 68 71 71 64 53 42 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 49 62 68 71 71 64 53 42 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 43 49 53 54 53 49 43 37 V (KT) G08R 41 39 44 42 42 50 51 49 54 48 44 41 39 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 13 10 12 18 23 19 23 25 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 2 3 9 9 0 7 5 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 67 74 86 101 82 84 63 78 63 68 60 52 48 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.3 24.3 23.5 23.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 139 137 135 130 125 123 116 105 97 95 92 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.8 -53.8 -55.1 -54.7 -55.3 -55.6 -57.0 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 53 54 55 54 51 48 46 49 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 25 25 27 30 31 31 32 31 27 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -5 -1 -1 -1 15 29 31 43 65 66 52 57 200 MB DIV 6 23 32 59 57 77 81 47 37 51 5 1 46 LAND (KM) 1205 1275 1316 1312 1316 1376 1444 1489 1469 1521 1583 1666 1699 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.8 18.3 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 116.1 117.0 117.8 118.6 120.5 122.3 123.8 125.0 126.8 128.2 129.8 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 10 10 10 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 12. 14. 12. 8. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 32. 38. 41. 41. 34. 23. 12. 1.