* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 55 59 60 59 61 61 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 48 55 59 60 59 61 61 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 42 45 49 53 53 V (KT) G09R 30 32 35 33 33 39 35 38 40 35 41 44 45 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 16 18 19 26 19 21 13 12 16 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 13 14 11 4 5 9 3 0 4 8 13 SHEAR DIR 107 111 126 127 118 117 108 108 108 67 51 31 13 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 135 133 129 125 124 124 126 125 121 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -55.1 -55.0 -55.9 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 56 59 60 62 61 59 57 58 59 60 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 18 19 21 23 23 24 22 24 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -10 -9 -5 -3 1 17 13 20 34 55 77 96 200 MB DIV -22 -2 20 47 50 34 56 41 52 36 35 83 106 LAND (KM) 1354 1403 1432 1506 1566 1632 1714 1753 1803 1841 1883 1911 1882 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 12.3 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.5 117.7 119.0 120.1 121.7 123.3 124.6 125.8 126.6 127.9 128.9 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 10 8 7 7 5 5 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 10. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 29. 30. 29. 31. 31. 26.