* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/08/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 48 53 56 53 48 36 26 17 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 48 53 56 53 48 36 26 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 39 41 43 43 42 39 35 30 V (KT) G10R 28 29 31 29 31 32 36 38 39 38 31 32 33 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 19 18 18 28 22 28 22 30 37 50 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 9 8 7 4 7 1 4 3 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 65 83 92 81 92 84 113 91 92 74 65 50 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.1 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 131 129 125 126 124 114 106 103 102 98 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 -55.4 -56.0 -57.1 -57.9 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 53 56 58 59 57 58 55 53 53 59 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 18 19 18 19 21 21 21 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -12 -5 -2 0 -11 5 1 -2 2 16 24 36 200 MB DIV 6 1 22 12 30 24 58 44 35 20 18 22 10 LAND (KM) 1276 1343 1424 1485 1513 1560 1651 1715 1704 1749 1812 1880 1935 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.7 18.1 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 118.0 119.4 120.5 121.5 123.1 125.0 126.6 127.9 129.3 130.6 131.9 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 9 10 8 9 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 23. 26. 23. 18. 6. -4. -13.