* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/09/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 50 55 53 44 29 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 50 55 53 44 29 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 41 43 42 37 31 25 V (KT) G06R 38 33 31 29 30 31 33 38 37 35 29 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 19 22 19 14 20 17 12 16 26 35 39 52 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 4 2 2 8 9 4 3 2 5 -2 -9 SHEAR DIR 83 81 80 81 81 87 28 42 29 45 40 42 32 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 25.7 24.2 23.2 22.8 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 125 124 123 125 120 104 93 88 88 90 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.6 -54.7 -55.4 -55.0 -56.7 -57.6 -58.1 -58.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 61 58 56 55 56 53 49 47 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 21 21 21 20 21 23 24 22 18 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -6 3 25 44 52 53 48 51 76 92 94 79 57 200 MB DIV 54 41 -1 0 32 27 33 15 51 17 24 11 19 LAND (KM) 1452 1506 1590 1634 1653 1700 1651 1492 1335 1335 1367 1471 1588 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.9 17.7 19.6 20.9 21.6 21.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.4 122.5 123.0 123.6 124.8 125.0 124.6 124.6 125.8 126.7 128.0 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 8 5 7 5 7 10 9 7 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -13. -19. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 4. -2. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 25. 23. 14. -1. -15. -25.