* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121996 11/09/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 41 45 52 60 63 58 48 33 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 41 45 52 60 63 58 48 33 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 35 36 38 39 38 34 28 22 V (KT) G08R 34 41 39 36 40 39 49 42 47 40 40 37 31 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 18 24 21 13 16 28 33 42 47 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 11 9 2 1 10 9 1 -3 3 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 64 80 88 93 80 86 51 48 33 45 43 51 44 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.4 24.0 23.1 22.6 22.3 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 127 126 125 124 123 116 102 92 86 83 81 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -55.0 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 59 59 58 55 53 50 48 49 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 25 26 26 28 31 31 30 29 25 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 16 26 42 50 55 53 57 81 104 95 82 60 36 200 MB DIV 46 46 28 27 49 82 89 59 40 38 25 21 -18 LAND (KM) 1399 1473 1524 1548 1565 1567 1504 1458 1373 1362 1318 1372 1424 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.5 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.8 21.0 22.3 23.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.6 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.5 123.9 124.6 125.3 126.2 126.6 127.6 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 22. 30. 33. 28. 18. 3. -13. -29.