* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MARCO AL131996 11/16/96 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 25 28 32 43 53 65 75 84 93 102 107 V (KT) LAND 20 21 25 28 32 43 53 65 75 84 93 102 107 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 17 20 24 29 35 43 55 67 76 V (KT) G06R 21 21 28 29 26 24 20 22 24 22 20 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 13 11 12 11 8 9 6 9 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 1 -3 -3 0 -3 -4 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 18 28 40 45 35 27 9 54 41 354 5 46 34 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 22.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 138 136 134 133 88 136 138 138 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 133 130 126 123 123 81 126 132 131 132 133 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 9 7 11 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 80 79 74 72 70 68 72 64 61 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 14 13 13 12 10 11 11 12 13 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 164 175 158 147 142 122 142 143 140 129 108 95 72 200 MB DIV 72 84 104 103 126 91 91 72 78 60 62 73 104 LAND (KM) 247 208 257 359 291 220 128 79 128 129 258 387 263 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 17.1 17.8 18.0 18.0 17.8 17.0 16.4 16.0 14.4 14.6 14.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.8 80.7 81.7 82.7 84.2 84.5 83.7 82.6 82.0 80.7 79.6 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 4 5 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):131/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 12. 23. 33. 45. 55. 64. 73. 82. 87.