* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ANDRES EP011997 06/02/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 52 66 80 93 101 103 100 94 80 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 52 66 80 93 101 103 100 94 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 56 68 81 91 93 89 82 61 V (KT) G00R 23 25 27 27 28 32 35 40 48 57 51 49 35 SHEAR (KT) 4 11 12 11 9 10 9 2 6 8 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -1 2 0 2 4 4 6 0 1 7 SHEAR DIR 82 66 62 58 54 72 92 42 222 270 276 294 313 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 26.6 7.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 163 163 162 162 163 164 164 164 163 126 60 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -53.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 13 14 13 16 14 15 14 14 12 15 700-500 MB RH 77 74 75 73 72 66 65 66 67 65 67 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 18 20 24 27 25 23 18 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -10 -8 -1 -4 19 26 35 56 76 82 111 200 MB DIV 141 122 88 95 101 80 107 87 102 80 93 110 147 LAND (KM) 500 424 386 357 337 308 334 391 393 297 204 154 59 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 12.7 12.2 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.6 97.0 97.2 97.2 96.8 96.5 95.7 94.7 93.7 93.1 93.0 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 3 2 2 3 6 5 5 3 3 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):328/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 43. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 20. 16. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 36. 50. 63. 71. 73. 70. 64. 50.