* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SUBTROP AL011997 06/02/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 49 47 39 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 49 47 39 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 45 42 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 26 25 33 27 28 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 37 45 50 60 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 2 2 0 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 76 79 84 95 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.2 13.7 12.0 17.7 20.4 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 75 71 71 78 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 68 69 73 82 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.4 -58.9 -59.0 -58.6 -58.0 -58.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 74 68 63 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 1 -15 -31 -6 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 47 23 -2 -13 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 180 186 224 380 475 925 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 39.3 40.2 40.1 40.0 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.2 71.6 68.6 65.0 62.2 52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 22 26 24 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 25 CX,CY: 13/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -9. -15. -19. -22. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 2. -6. -13. -24. -32. -40. -48. -55. -61.