* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SUBTROP AL011997 06/02/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 49 46 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 49 46 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 44 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 27 26 32 28 28 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 37 45 57 67 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 1 -1 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 75 79 80 86 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.5 13.9 12.3 14.5 19.3 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 71 69 70 79 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 68 67 67 73 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -59.0 -59.2 -58.8 -58.1 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 74 69 65 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 3 -20 -21 -7 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 54 36 33 16 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 184 210 335 416 667 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 39.2 40.0 40.0 39.8 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.6 72.0 69.2 67.1 64.7 61.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 19 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 25 CX,CY: 13/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -4. -14. -21. -27. -30. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -13. -25. -34. -44. -52. -61. -68.