* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ANDRES EP011997 06/04/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 53 64 75 80 81 80 81 83 80 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 53 64 75 80 51 35 29 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 50 57 64 67 45 33 29 27 30 V (KT) G02R 21 19 21 21 21 25 33 40 22 25 21 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 9 9 9 4 7 8 7 7 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -1 -6 0 -1 2 1 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 84 79 80 65 48 3 300 243 33 60 42 112 62 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.0 28.1 27.2 26.3 25.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 165 167 167 167 165 156 147 135 125 117 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 12 13 14 13 14 12 15 13 15 12 14 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 68 68 70 72 71 65 60 63 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 9 10 10 13 16 17 15 13 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 17 21 26 33 52 57 64 54 57 47 28 200 MB DIV 55 44 44 54 46 71 100 110 132 120 67 22 41 LAND (KM) 206 163 166 246 267 239 230 135 -79 -127 -84 -145 33 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.5 13.8 13.6 12.8 12.3 12.7 15.4 17.4 18.3 19.7 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.8 94.8 93.6 92.6 90.7 89.3 89.3 89.0 88.7 89.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 4 5 5 6 7 12 13 7 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 72/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 28. 29. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 13. 10. 7. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 25. 35. 40. 41. 40. 41. 43. 40.