* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ANDRES EP011997 06/04/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 42 37 31 26 24 23 24 24 24 23 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 42 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 39 34 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 46 31 35 31 23 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 12 10 15 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 7 8 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 72 93 85 92 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.7 17.1 7.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 161 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -52.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 12 14 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 68 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 13 13 12 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -6 15 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 22 31 52 21 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 156 155 111 60 7 -97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.3 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 94.2 93.5 92.7 92.1 89.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 72/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 2. -3. -9. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -17.