* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ANDRES EP011997 06/04/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 55 65 74 77 63 56 55 58 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 55 65 74 77 63 48 35 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 59 62 62 56 33 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 30 26 29 31 30 42 38 51 34 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 7 9 9 10 16 14 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 2 1 1 3 7 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 61 56 16 13 313 304 278 299 323 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 164 165 166 168 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -53.2 -52.5 -53.4 -52.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 12 13 15 13 15 12 14 12 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 69 69 71 69 67 67 65 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 16 16 19 22 22 14 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 22 34 43 58 79 95 104 110 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 54 62 65 82 61 92 101 89 59 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 317 350 344 333 312 325 306 234 85 -16 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.7 15.3 16.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.6 95.3 95.3 95.3 95.2 94.6 94.5 94.8 95.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 72/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 14. 3. -7. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 34. 37. 23. 16. 15. 18. 20.