* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ANDRES EP011997 06/04/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 51 54 59 63 65 66 68 69 70 69 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 51 54 59 63 65 66 68 69 70 69 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 20 14 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 20 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 88 93 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 20.6 30.1 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 65 166 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 29 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 47 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 174 96 126 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 14.6 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.2 95.8 96.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 72/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29.