* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOS EP041997 06/26/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 40 40 38 33 27 22 20 18 19 19 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 40 40 38 33 27 22 20 18 19 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 43 42 41 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 46 35 42 38 31 24 26 25 22 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 10 11 10 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 3 4 2 2 -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 120 105 98 106 163 281 312 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.5 25.4 25.7 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 134 128 118 118 122 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 56 53 50 50 46 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 21 20 19 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 28 25 16 9 6 11 6 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 28 9 -16 2 -20 -1 14 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 556 534 569 622 746 899 1090 1329 1571 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.5 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.4 17.9 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.5 112.8 114.2 115.7 117.9 120.3 122.8 125.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 11 11 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):303/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -22. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 5. 5. 3. -2. -8. -13. -15. -17. -16. -16.