* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOS EP041997 06/26/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 39 39 37 34 31 26 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 39 39 37 34 31 26 25 24 23 23 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 41 41 41 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 33 28 29 30 25 22 24 25 25 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 13 14 10 3 9 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 4 1 1 3 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 118 111 106 126 236 319 3 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.9 25.6 26.0 25.4 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 132 125 121 125 119 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 54 51 45 44 40 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 15 14 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 16 11 1 -4 3 21 17 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 11 3 -13 -16 -28 -5 7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 505 496 576 675 810 1067 1340 1602 1903 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.7 18.1 17.5 17.3 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.9 113.4 114.9 116.6 119.7 122.6 125.7 129.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):303/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.