* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOS EP041997 06/26/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 41 41 40 36 30 24 21 18 17 17 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 41 41 40 36 30 24 21 18 17 17 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 42 40 39 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 38 27 33 31 26 22 23 21 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 15 15 12 2 6 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 5 5 3 2 4 -3 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 105 103 109 125 112 334 335 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.3 24.9 24.4 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 136 128 113 107 112 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 55 52 48 47 43 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 17 16 14 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 22 11 6 -11 -13 -4 -4 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 13 -11 -21 -10 -3 -6 12 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 506 484 495 562 671 818 1019 1257 1492 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 18.9 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.8 112.1 113.7 115.2 117.7 120.3 122.7 125.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 15 13 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):303/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -5. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18.