* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FIVE EP051997 07/03/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 42 42 39 36 31 23 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 42 42 39 36 31 23 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 26 24 22 21 19 V (KT) G01R 44 44 38 40 40 38 36 37 39 37 35 33 31 SHEAR (KT) 25 10 14 5 6 10 6 2 6 11 12 18 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 0 2 7 7 3 3 2 1 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 290 317 328 333 305 276 261 242 53 79 69 85 61 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.4 24.2 23.8 23.5 24.3 25.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 135 131 127 118 107 104 102 110 119 124 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 65 65 65 60 57 50 48 42 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 28 25 25 25 24 23 21 20 17 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 90 110 107 101 98 84 82 82 62 48 27 33 32 200 MB DIV 83 115 65 29 28 -6 -3 -10 -9 -33 -3 8 -7 LAND (KM) 1516 1539 1629 1691 1725 1741 1741 1878 2138 1707 1172 618 124 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 14.9 14.8 15.1 15.7 17.2 18.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.6 123.8 124.5 125.2 125.9 127.5 130.2 133.9 138.5 143.6 148.9 153.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 5 7 13 16 20 24 24 26 21 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):258/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 9. 6. 1. -7. -15. -18. -20.