* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ANA AL021997 07/03/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 35 34 32 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 35 34 32 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 41 31 32 34 31 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 26 35 37 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 119 142 147 148 132 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.8 25.4 25.5 24.3 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 104 110 111 102 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 90 95 96 89 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -54.8 -54.1 -53.6 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 52 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 15 13 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 13 0 5 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -9 8 37 34 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 614 620 605 513 443 415 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.0 36.2 37.5 38.8 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.5 69.1 68.7 67.8 66.7 62.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 38/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. -0. -6. -9. -12. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -9. -14. -19. -23. -24. -26. -27.