* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DOLORES EP061997 07/08/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 78 75 66 52 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 78 75 66 52 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 79 80 79 75 65 56 48 42 36 29 23 18 V (KT) G01R 59 40 38 41 40 36 34 32 34 36 35 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 10 7 12 11 18 24 28 23 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -2 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -2 1 5 12 9 SHEAR DIR 166 38 50 78 76 97 101 69 50 58 58 51 39 SST (C) 27.5 26.6 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.2 22.9 23.2 23.6 23.7 23.4 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 134 122 114 105 96 93 96 100 101 97 99 101 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 72 70 66 64 58 53 46 41 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 27 26 26 25 24 21 19 18 19 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 56 81 74 74 74 68 62 50 32 27 22 4 -15 200 MB DIV 92 28 23 18 39 15 -18 4 22 33 24 -15 0 LAND (KM) 1336 1453 1547 1581 1630 1827 1971 1910 1615 1389 1235 1061 974 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.0 19.0 20.1 21.3 21.9 23.2 24.4 25.7 26.2 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 123.2 124.9 126.2 127.8 130.9 133.6 136.6 139.7 142.4 144.8 147.3 149.8 STM SPEED (KT) 24 21 16 16 17 14 14 15 14 14 11 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):281/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -10. -18. -25. -31. -35. -38. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. -15. -16. -15. -16. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. -0. -9. -23. -39. -51. -61. -71. -85. -96.