* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ENRIQUE EP071997 07/13/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 69 78 82 79 64 44 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 69 78 82 79 64 44 25 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 61 65 71 75 71 59 45 33 24 17 V (KT) G08R 42 37 36 36 39 44 47 49 45 35 31 28 23 SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 5 8 15 11 14 25 36 37 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 2 1 8 10 8 4 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 309 356 340 15 345 20 10 50 47 56 57 79 88 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.7 24.9 22.9 22.6 22.5 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 149 148 144 132 115 93 89 87 89 91 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 74 74 70 65 58 55 49 43 34 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 27 24 20 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 39 46 48 48 47 48 35 24 1 -18 -7 -5 -2 200 MB DIV 101 118 106 104 111 76 101 80 23 -29 3 -3 -12 LAND (KM) 1625 1648 1656 1675 1687 1684 1640 1618 1673 1814 1842 1975 1769 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.8 11.4 12.1 13.5 15.6 18.0 20.6 21.8 22.9 23.0 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.0 119.1 120.2 121.2 123.0 124.6 126.7 129.5 131.8 133.7 136.1 138.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 14 18 14 12 9 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 12. 10. 6. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. -2. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 5. -0. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 33. 37. 34. 19. -1. -20. -36. -49.