* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANNY AL051997 07/25/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 54 53 51 42 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 54 53 51 42 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 55 51 46 39 35 33 30 27 24 DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 37 35 36 35 34 29 27 26 21 19 16 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 31 34 27 20 13 9 20 24 36 37 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 -2 -5 0 1 -1 1 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 72 67 56 69 73 83 65 82 90 111 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 22.6 21.0 20.5 20.3 19.5 19.9 20.2 18.1 21.0 20.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 92 82 78 79 79 82 85 78 85 81 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 82 72 69 70 72 75 80 73 76 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.0 -56.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 1 4 4 3 5 2 1 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 50 46 43 44 48 49 44 46 47 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 22 22 20 17 14 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 32 38 31 8 2 4 -2 -26 -41 -60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 8 11 9 -17 -19 4 1 -33 -7 -41 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 133 186 120 114 148 278 290 543 545 884 1124 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 39.0 40.1 40.4 40.4 41.0 41.8 41.7 42.7 42.2 42.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.8 72.2 71.2 70.8 70.0 67.2 62.7 56.5 49.1 43.8 40.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 9 5 8 14 19 28 23 17 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 63/ 26 CX,CY: 23/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. 1. -8. -17. -26. -39. -51. -62. -70. -75.