* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANNY AL051997 07/25/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 54 53 50 41 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 54 53 50 41 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 54 50 45 38 35 34 32 30 28 26 DIS V (KT) G08R 43 36 39 38 38 31 29 26 24 20 19 18 0 SHEAR (KT) 32 37 27 22 15 12 22 23 24 29 28 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 -1 -4 -1 -3 0 1 2 3 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 71 72 69 56 66 70 71 79 81 96 107 129 N/A SST (C) 23.9 21.9 20.2 19.8 19.8 20.7 21.9 21.4 22.2 21.8 20.5 19.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 89 79 76 78 83 89 88 92 90 83 82 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 80 70 67 70 74 80 80 83 81 75 74 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.9 -54.8 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -56.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 1 1 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 48 44 42 41 43 50 46 50 49 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 23 25 25 23 19 15 12 10 8 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 19 30 23 2 10 25 28 -5 12 -18 -53 N/A 200 MB DIV 59 25 32 24 -13 -39 7 5 -26 2 -32 -23 N/A LAND (KM) 170 169 126 113 163 302 404 595 672 889 1147 1387 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 39.5 40.5 40.7 40.6 40.8 41.1 41.2 40.9 41.6 42.3 43.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.2 71.5 70.3 70.1 69.1 66.0 61.7 56.2 50.7 44.5 40.0 36.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 17 8 5 9 13 19 21 23 22 16 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 63/ 26 CX,CY: 23/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 3. 0. -9. -17. -25. -35. -46. -55. -63. -68.