* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANNY AL051997 07/26/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 42 39 34 33 27 22 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 42 39 34 33 27 22 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 47 45 41 37 33 30 28 28 30 DIS V (KT) G05R 41 36 33 31 28 28 35 41 42 41 40 26 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 14 13 20 30 38 37 46 27 19 12 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 0 5 2 4 7 20 18 7 -6 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 58 77 78 80 82 80 71 26 4 356 30 65 N/A SST (C) 20.7 21.4 21.3 20.7 18.7 18.3 18.0 14.5 13.9 9.6 9.1 6.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 86 87 86 81 81 82 76 72 68 63 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 77 79 79 76 77 79 73 69 66 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -55.3 -54.1 -50.9 -49.0 -48.8 -48.0 -48.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 3 5 4 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 43 45 51 50 44 50 55 61 58 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 19 17 15 14 20 26 31 32 26 19 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 24 30 42 73 73 115 154 182 129 85 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -27 -32 16 27 35 20 6 35 54 42 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 228 342 302 372 412 537 1074 1258 995 1068 1247 1261 N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 40.4 40.9 41.5 42.3 42.6 46.2 53.1 58.3 63.0 65.7 68.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.3 66.7 64.3 61.6 58.0 49.5 38.7 29.0 24.0 22.3 23.3 18.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 20 25 28 33 53 37 26 22 9 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 57/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -0. -0. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -3. 1. 4. 5. 0. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -17. -23. -28. -31. -40. -52. -61.