* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/04/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 126 121 116 106 98 92 87 81 75 68 59 V (KT) LAND 135 133 126 121 116 106 98 92 87 81 75 68 59 V (KT) LGE mod 135 132 124 115 108 96 85 77 71 65 59 52 47 V (KT) G03R 41 39 54 62 55 54 53 63 58 59 56 56 59 SHEAR (KT) 8 13 18 14 13 11 10 7 17 5 14 1 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 11 13 6 7 7 3 6 0 13 5 SHEAR DIR 157 192 185 176 150 210 244 254 212 218 261 63 347 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.2 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 150 149 146 143 144 140 137 126 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 -50.2 -51.4 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 76 77 78 76 74 74 68 67 67 64 66 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 28 31 34 35 38 39 40 41 40 40 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 9 29 38 49 54 66 95 106 109 94 97 88 90 200 MB DIV 63 68 78 95 108 45 50 37 41 -11 47 -1 61 LAND (KM) 968 1086 1135 1194 1284 1518 1813 2082 2341 2029 1722 1439 1172 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.5 115.1 116.8 118.5 122.2 126.1 129.7 133.3 136.2 139.1 141.7 144.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 18 17 20 14 15 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -31. -40. -48. -55. -62. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -5. -3. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 13. 15. 18. 15. 16. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -9. -14. -19. -29. -37. -43. -48. -54. -60. -67. -76.