* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/04/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 127 120 111 100 92 87 82 80 80 75 66 V (KT) LAND 135 133 127 120 111 100 92 87 82 80 80 75 66 V (KT) LGE mod 135 131 124 116 108 94 84 78 74 71 68 62 55 V (KT) G05R 40 30 29 34 41 50 42 44 47 50 52 48 51 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 18 15 17 8 10 7 10 10 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 0 0 8 0 -1 -3 5 1 3 7 12 SHEAR DIR 221 248 222 223 219 188 190 203 119 121 113 158 27 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.5 26.7 26.7 25.7 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 149 147 146 142 141 133 133 122 120 120 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 76 76 77 71 68 63 60 58 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 30 31 32 32 33 34 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 43 54 55 65 66 63 79 82 77 72 61 61 62 200 MB DIV 59 53 63 45 43 75 26 19 34 14 5 1 44 LAND (KM) 958 1066 1172 1310 1406 1541 1818 2066 2276 2029 1700 1374 1074 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.1 15.7 15.9 16.6 16.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.9 116.6 118.4 119.7 122.4 126.4 129.6 132.8 136.0 139.0 142.1 144.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 15 13 16 17 16 15 15 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -9. -13. -22. -32. -41. -49. -57. -64. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -10. -7. -3. -0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 15. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -15. -24. -35. -43. -48. -53. -55. -55. -60. -69.